directory Light the Lamp - a Columbus Blue Jackets blog: Analyze this!

Countdown to Rick Nash's contract expiration:

Monday, June 16, 2008

Analyze this!

I did this back in April but I am going to revisit the past twenty 6th overall picks and take a look at what the Jackets' chances are they they'll hit a home run with a sure fire NHLer:

1987: F Dave Archibald (323GP 57G 67A 124P)
1988: F Scott Pearson (292GP 56G 42A 98P)
1989: D Adam Bennett (69GP 3G 8A 11P)
1990: D Scott Scissons (2GP 0G 0A 0P)
1991: F Peter Forsberg (706GP 249G 636A 885P)
1992: F Cory Stillman (839GP 234G 368A 602P)
1993: F Victor Kozlov (749GP 169G 273A 442P)
1994: F Ryan Smyth (788GP 270G 294A 564P)
1995: F Steve Kelly (147GP 9G 12A 21P)
1996: F Boyd Devereaux (604GP 61G 107A 168P)
1997: F Daniel Tkaczuk (19GP 4G 7A 11P)
1998: F Rico Fata (230GP 27G 36A 63P)
1999: G Brian Finley (4GP 0G 0A 0P)
2000: F Scott Hartnell (436GP 93G 118P 211P)
2001: F Miko Koivu (146GP 26G 49A 75P)
2002: F Scottie Upshall (95GP 17G 25A 42P)
2003: F Milan Michalek (161GP 44G 58A 102P)
2004: G Al Montoya (0GP 0G 0A 0P)
2005: F Gilbert Brule (85GP 11G 12A 23P)
2006: F Derick Brassard (17GP 1G 1A 2P)
2007: F Sam Gagner (79GP 13G 36A 49P)

down on all 20 by positions:

*2 goalies
*2 defensemen
*16 forwards

Without including the past 5 draft picks here are some general take-aways:

*On average you can expect 316 games out of the player we pick 6th. That equates to just roughly under 4 seasons of play -- of course you have to take into count partial seasons for development, injuries etc.

*On average the 6th overall will produce 85 goals throughout his career. Of course that number will be higher for forwards and less for defensemen.

*On average the 6th overall will produce 102 assists.

*Then you add both of those together you and get on average the 6th overall will give you 187 points in a career.
This will the 3rd time the Jackets will pick 6th overall.

Now breaking down this list a little further and taking some liberties on the past 5 picks so that I can include all 20 of them this is what I see:

*1 superstar in Forsberg

*5 all stars in Smyth, Kozlov, Michalek, Gagner & Stillman

*3 really good NHLers in Hartnell, Koivu and Brassard

*4 productive NHLers in Upshall, Archibald, Pearson, Brule & Fata

*5 flat out busts in Bennett, Scissons, Kelly, Tkaczuk, Montoya & Finley

Now Brule could easily become a bust. Montoya could be productive eventually as we all know it takes goalies a long time to develop. I could also see Brassard as an all star.

Now this isn't a perfect science but all n'all I'd say there is about a 50% chance you'll at least get a really good NHLer. A 25% chance you'll get an all star and a 5% chance you'll get a superstar.

Really not that bad of odds but probably not as great as you'd think they'd be either.

4 days to go!



Pub said...

Maybe you need a new category for Brule. I would not call him a bust yet...but to me...hardly a productive NHL player. Just my take.

Also...HF boards goes down right on cue...its going to get lambasted in the next few days!! :)

dan said...

stupid HF. missing my fix. starting to shake and sweat. thankfully LTL is here.

i wouldn't call Montoya a bust yet. he's disappointing, but still young enough to make something of himself ... i think.

LTL said...

Yeah I was torn on both Brule and Montoya... could go either way with both of em... So figure one in each for now and of course I had to put the Jacket in the better category ;)

A very in-exact science I know but its somethin to chew on!